Hello, this is Fisher in Best Fisher In the recent video, ordinary people like us Hard to recognize in the US and China Again, the insolvency and bubble of finance I explained the increasing situation The beginning of the coming economic crisis I explained to you that Also, if you look at some economic indicators, I explained if you can respond First of all, The most frequently asked question So will you get better in the future? Are you getting worse? I don’t know whether to sell stocks or real estate. Is the question These questions were asked during my consultation Frequently asked questions I will tell you directly Which section of the picture is the leg in the big stream? I look at the orange slowdown It’s not the area of ​​red descent Because it didn’t crash Not a yellow recovery Even if we don’t know the economy well, Somewhere in the green rising area I think there will be Everybody knows dimly. More sophisticated judgments can predict a crash It can be judged based on a number of economic indicators. Right behind the green rising zone So the latter part of the recent expansion of the big flow An economic term called late cycle It is appearing boringly If you explain to this, those who are in a hurry are already So all the risky assets like stocks and real estate You might think you should sell. But what you need to know The financial crisis broke out in 2006 Go to the end of 2007 That was the late cycle If you look at the KOSPI chart from 2006 to 2007, You can see that it’s doubled. Like the darkest and coldest day before dawn To the top of the game The heat of the game is at its peak Because the bubble grows The stock market also peaks. So you are in a haste cycle Stocks that are risky assets Selling everything is not good At this point, those who are in a hurry So in conclusion, it’s gone. You will be asked The reason why you ask this question Because you’re trying to make extreme choices. Stocks or real estate to the peak of the game Or have it near here Just before the crash Because I have an idea You are asking this question Most people After I sell stocks or real estate I hope it will crash in a month or two or three months. Even if not the highest point I hope to sell near that If I go up after selling I can’t stand it because my stomach hurts. This is a human psychology Like the answer you want, Not up here Will crash Can match exactly Nobody Because you can’t exactly match the future We respond with a portfolio In the second half of this expansion, Unexpected sudden like Black Monday There may be a crash Because of this, equity assets 60 bond assets 40 The ratios are allocated according to one’s inclination. And foresee the slump coming In many economic indicators As the danger signal increases Reduce the share of equity assets Is to increase the proportion of bond assets. Excluding 40% of bond-type assets against risk About 60% of equity assets Is it time to buy stocks now? Is it time to sell? If you ask From here, I can explain the article. First of all, I want to see my previous video Continued last August video Since the likelihood of settlement of US-China trade disputes increases Year-end or next year’s stock market and recovery I’ve explained to you that it’s very likely. You can’t manipulate past images If you look back, you will know. Is telling the same story You can see Sometimes comments say I’m not feeling good Predicted that the stock market fell There are people who lie Those people don’t watch the video People who only see a few thumbnails come to comment I do not watch the video If only others say slander comments I know there are so many So the key point is The current segment is in a big flow The second half of the expansion is correct And when the crash comes When will the advantages of the game be Because you can’t fit exactly Through our portfolio I told you to respond. And in this big flow of business There are many cycles of small cycles. As shown in the picture, Followed by an economic recovery If you look at US stocks since 2009, I don’t have time to rest If you look closely, you can see Small cycles have been repeated many times Boxed squares in the picture Are the sections of slowing and falling. So now the situation is a small cycle From last August to early next year On the possibility of settlement of the US-China trade agreement. Expectations are rising Of the developed countries, Because stimulus is likely to continue The stock market and the economy are likely to recover That’s why I said high So we diversify our portfolio If risk management It’s not the time to sell stocks that are risky assets. What will happen next What can we judge At present all global institutional investors You can respond by looking at the most interesting indicators. That’s the US manufacturing index. ism manufacturing index is more than 400 in the United States Surveyed companies and completed Especially in the purchase manager index Since the Savings Loan in 1991 The Crisis of Emerging Countries in the Late 90s IT bubble collapsed in 2001 And the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis In the big game and stock market crash The index fell first Deep contractions below 50 There is a history Now in the contraction phase of 50 or less It’s a pretty dangerous section At this time, the bankruptcy of the Savings Loan Union in 1991 Like the 2008 Financial Committee If bad assets are chained off When this shock occurs In this situation, the economy I cannot absorb this shock Stock market crash and economic downturn. Fortunately, the news so far It’s not coming Perhaps the US-US negotiations broke down completely Declares an end to trade, The sudden debt bubble collapsed in China If companies go bankrupt If not, the stock market and the economy It’s not very likely to crash suddenly. Of course called the Black Swan Unexpected bad news In preparation for these we have Holding at least 40% of bond assets Preparing for risk I told you before Fortunately, we’re in the middle of small deal Consensus expectations are high. The Federal Reserve, the People’s Bank of China and the European Central Bank Is to provide stimulus. In particular, investor sentiment in the US has recovered. The most important thing is whether the manufacturing index is recovering. Announced as forward as current expectations If the manufacturing index recovers Stock market is likely to continue rising If you are lucky again Ism Manufacturing New Order Index Leading Manufacturing Index More than 50 expansion phase rebounds Is coming up just below. When companies feel investor sentiment recovers To increase equipment investment Because we replace old equipment Manufacturing New Order Index Increases Because of this New order index precedes manufacturing index I moved a lot There is also a good chance that there will be a positive trend now. It’s the situation you see. And it’s a chart I often show With the ism manufacturing index in the US Korea’s exports over the past 20 years Have been moving almost similarly Korea’s economy and stock market Because it works in conjunction with export If the US manufacturing index reverses, Positively affecting Korea’s stock market This is news You may have seen my first video. I draw a few lines on the KOSPI chart Or by looking at some secondary indicators I’ve been buying foreigners for days Not for such reasons Based on economic indicators and historical facts We are looking at probability and predicting the future If you browse my other videos Not the indicators I just showed you To predict the crash and observe the current There are many historical economic indicators Because I can’t put it all in 10 minutes I can’t explain it all right now. At present, global investors Because the indicator we are looking at is the US manufacturing index I am highlighting the indicator several times. The US-China agreement is going smoothly The manufacturing index is recovering If the Fed’s stimulus package continues Stock Market Rise and Korean Economy It’s likely to rise by early next year. You can respond by looking at these indicators. Contrary to expectations, the US manufacturing index It keeps slowing and prices are rising The Fed’s stimulus package is not as strong as expected US-China Consensus Difficult We need to manage the risk by increasing the proportion of bonds The second most frequently asked question Corporate debt problems in the US and China The next economic crisis can be called When do these come? Are you coming right now? Is the question As I mentioned in the videos, It is predictable that a bubble is occurring Nobody can hit the exact point of collapse In case you have a financial crisis in 2008 Forecast of Investors Do you know movie big shots? If you look at the movie, The hero of the film, Christian Bale, Lead an asset management company He expects a downturn and the cds premium I buy it, but even after several months Let’s accumulate losses without crash Many of their customers are leaving It’s almost impossible to be at the right time I’m trying to tell you But the reason I talked about big shot There is another one The real hero of this big shot I’m Hedge Fund Manager Steve Eisman. Predicting problems with MBS and CDO before the financial crisis Credit default swap=CDS This is when the stock market collapses and US Treasury bonds are at risk Then the price skyrockets His Front Point Partners assets at that time While most institutions see losses $ 700 million, or $ 800 billion in assets Increase assets to $ 1.5 billion That’s a great person In our recent interview, Be prepared for the liquidity crisis I sent you such a warning. BBB grade bonds are eligible for investment The bottom companies. Investors for that bond Reluctant to invest As it is carried out now Possible liquidity problems Is increasing I explained the previous video BB-Securities Lending This is similar to the CLO. Companies below BBB So in the case of low credit companies Because the credit rating is relatively low It gives you high interest Trying to recover funds when it’s dangerous Hearing bonds So when it’s dangerous Because investors try to get out of each other first Selling corporate bonds and rising interest rates There are these characteristics So for low credit companies The liquidity problem predicted the financial crisis in advance Steven Eisman is preparing for that, We should be prepared too Is it the answer? Doing a low credit business problem in the US And Chinese credit companies and Foreign Bond Issuance Company Issues And real estate problems in China. In the meantime, since there is no investment destination for long-term low interest rates Lending to these companies You can get high interest The market size has soared. The chart shows the excess bond premium and the recession probability chart. Investigated by the Fed How much more interest are you giving to all bonds? Calculate the indicator representing This chart is a probability calculation of the economic crisis. Probable recent economic crisis Although not at the level of the past financial crisis You can see that it soared so high. And it’s been stable lately. If there wasn’t a small deal in between That was a dangerous time now. The danger is coming without us knowing Those who are not prepared It’s just called Black Swan No one can guess exactly when it will be. Aware of the crisis There are people who prepare Predict economic crisis through economic indicators In a party where a lot of people are mad We must get out of the back door first If you liked today’s video Subscribe and like by all means !! Press it Please watch continuously Thank you