2020 is the day of reckoning. If there is a day of reckoning that’s when the economic expansion will end and a recession will ensue. No recession in 2019. In large part because we do have more fiscal stimulus in 2019 it’s mostly deficit financed increases in government spending and that allowed a lot to growth. And also we’re in a self reinforcing virtuous cycle. Lots of jobs low unemployment wage growth is accelerating. Supporting more consumer spending which is causing businesses to hire which is pushing unemployment down so we’re in a very virtuous cycle. But it can get broken. And in my view that probably would occur in 2020 so if I had to pick a date for the next recession it would be sometime in 2020. By 2020 there is no more fiscal stimulus it’s all gone unless Congress and the Trump administration get it together and do something else. But given the politics here I doubt that very much. And also by 2020 interest rates will be higher. The Fed will have raised rates of several more times. That’ll put pressure on interest sensitive sectors of the economy like housing in the vehicle sector. And you know I do think there are imbalances developing in the economy and financial system more broadly that will become exposed as the economy growth slows and interest rates rise. The most obvious is non-financial corporate debt so called leverage lending. That is a problem and I think that will become more obvious as we make our way into 2020. So if I had to identify the thing that does this economic expansion in it will be high leverage over borrowing in the corporate sector. You’ve got some companies multinationals doing fabulously well. You know the tech companies a lot of the healthcare companies pharmaceuticals they got cash everywhere and they’re fine no problem. Balance sheets very strong. Then on the other side of the distribution you’ve got companies that are highly levered and a lot of it’s related to engineering. You’ve got private equity firms and other nonbank entities coming in leveraging up these companies trying to increase the returns to shareholders through the leverage. So if you add up all of the debt issued by companies that are already highly leveraged it’s comes close to two point eight trillion dollars worth that. That’s a lot. And if you get into an environment where growth is slowing sales growth is slowing. Interest rates are higher so interest payments on that debt are rising. It’s going to put a lot of pressure on those companies because they’ve got a Hobson’s choice. Do I make my debt payment or do I cut back hiring. Do I cut back investment. In most cases they’re going to have to cut back on hiring and investment. Of course that’s the fodder for a recession. I think the Trump administration’s economic policies are significantly dangerously misplaced. The federal government is borrowing hand over fist the debt load is ballooning as we use that money to pay for tax cuts and increases in government spending. That’s only temporary and it provides juice for a short period of time and then it goes away. But of course we’re left with the higher debt loads. Now here’s the thing. Deficits and debt don’t matter a whole lot in any given year it’s like climate change. We know climate change is a real problem and if we don’t do something about it it’s gonna be cataclysmic. We don’t know exactly when the crisis is going to hit but we know it will if we don’t change something. That’s exactly what the fiscal situation is if we know it’s a problem. It’s already hurting the economy. We don’t know when it’s gonna send us off the cliff but we better do something before it does. And then we also have the Trade War which you know feels like it might be moderating. But who knows. I mean if that escalates any further it’s already doing damage to the stock market and to the broader economy it will do a lot of damage. So the economic policies that the administration pursuing is doing damage to the economy and that’s going to become increasingly more obvious as we move through 2019 and 2020 and that’s why I think 2020 is the day of reckoning. If there is a day of reckoning that’s when the economic expansion will end and a recession will ensue.